Iran warns of attack on US bases after tanker strikes test ceasefire

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy warned on Saturday it would mount a “heavy assault” on a United States military base in the region and strike American vessels if Iranian oil tankers or commercial ships come under attack, raising the stakes in a month-old conflict that has choked the Strait of Hormuz and rattled global energy markets.

The threat, carried by Iranian state media, followed a US strike on two Iranian oil tankers on Friday that Washington said were attempting to breach its blockade of Iranian ports. The exchange has cast doubt over the durability of a ceasefire the Trump administration insists remains in force.

US Central Command said on Saturday its forces had turned back 58 commercial vessels and “disabled” four since the blockade began on 13 April, part of an effort to pressure Tehran into reopening the strategic waterway and rolling back its nuclear programme.

The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, has been largely obstructed since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran on 28 February. The blockage has pushed Brent crude above $101 per barrel and driven fuel prices higher across importing economies, compounding the inflationary pressures that central banks from Washington to Frankfurt have been fighting to contain.

Iran’s warning extended beyond the United States. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, cautioned Bahrain, host of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, against siding with Washington. Azizi said alignment with the American position would bring “severe consequences” and warned against “closing” the Strait of Hormuz “FOREVER,” according to a post on social media.

The warning coincided with Bahrain’s announcement that its security forces had arrested 41 people it said belonged to a group linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The ministry stated the group had communicated with the Guard and gathered funds intended for Iran to support what it described as “terrorist operations.” Bahrain, a Gulf monarchy with a restive Shia majority, has long accused Iran of fomenting instability on the island.

President Donald Trump intensified his rhetorical campaign against Tehran on Saturday, sharing an AI-generated image on Truth Social that depicted 159 Iranian ships in two panels: one showing vessels flying Iranian flags labelled “Obama/Biden,” the other showing the same fleet destroyed on the ocean floor under the word “Trump.”

Trump described a Thursday exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces near the strait as a “love tap,” but warned the US would “knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Tehran was ignoring American “deadlines.”

The administration had paused “Project Freedom,” a military-backed operation to escort commercial ships through the strait, on Tuesday. Trump said the pause was meant to allow negotiations to continue.

Naval deployments

Britain’s defence ministry said on Saturday it was deploying the destroyer HMS Dragon to the Middle East to preposition for a potential multinational mission to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. France announced it was moving its aircraft carrier strike group into the Red Sea as part of the same preparatory effort. Both governments stressed the coalition would not commence operations until a durable ceasefire existed and the maritime industry had been assured of safe passage. The UK and France have led planning for the naval escort force, which would be the largest multinational maritime security operation in the Gulf since the tanker wars of the 1980s.

Diplomatic efforts

Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said his government had been in contact with Washington and Tehran “day and night” to extend the ceasefire and reach a broader peace accord. Pakistan shares a porous 900-kilometre border with Iran and has a direct interest in preventing the conflict from destabilising Balochistan, the region that straddles both countries.

Russia’s foreign ministry said Moscow and Riyadh were jointly calling for diplomatic efforts toward a “sustainable, long-term agreement.” President Vladimir Putin told reporters in Moscow that a proposal to take custody of Iran’s enriched uranium remained under discussion and could be placed under International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, providing transparency on the quantity and location of Tehran’s fissile material.

Egyptian and Qatari diplomats reiterated after a phone call on Saturday that diplomacy was the only viable path to resolving the crisis, according to a readout released by Cairo.

The leadership question

Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared publicly since the conflict began. On Friday, Mazaher Hosseini, a cleric affiliated with the office of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the war’s opening attacks, said Mojtaba was in “complete health.” Hosseini stated the Supreme Leader sustained knee and back injuries in the initial strikes but that those wounds had largely healed. The absence of Iran’s top authority has left diplomats uncertain about who in Tehran is empowered to sign off on the concessions Washington is demanding.

What comes next

The White House has not set a public deadline for Iran’s response to the peace proposal. Oil markets have steadied after sharp gains earlier in the week but remain sensitive to any breakdown in the truce, with Brent crude trading near $102 per barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a client note on Friday that a collapse of the ceasefire would likely push Brent above $120 within a fortnight.